Relegation 24/25 Thread

[EnglishBob]

Well I have 104 friends

 

[jd1981]

Well I have 104 friends

And I’ve got cheese

 

[Lycan]

I was thinking about what Deutsch said earlier about what would happen to our squad if we go down.

Johnstone - Stay
Sá - Sold
Bentley - Stay
King - Stay

Semedo - Out of contract so would leave
Lima - Stay
Doherty - Unfortunately he probably stays
Hoever - They'd probably keep him as he now has Championship experience
Rayan Aït-Nouri - Big sale
Hugo Bueno - Keep
Lembikisa - Keep

Craig Dawson - Out of contract
Yerson Mosquera - Sale
Toti Gomes - Keep
Santi Bueno - Keep
Nigel Lonwijk - Keep

Mario Lemina - Out of contract. No way he stays on in the Championship
João Gomes - Big sale
André - Big sale
Tommy Doyle - Keep
Boubacar Traoré - Keep
Luke Cundle - Keep
Joe Hodge - Keep

Pablo Sarabia - Out of contract
Gonçalo Guedes - Still contacted until 2027, another loan?
Rodrigo Gomes - Keep
Carlos Forbs - Keep
Chiquinho - Keep
Chem Campbell - No idea
Enso González - Keep
Tawanda Chirewa - Keep

Matheus Cunha - Big sale
Sasa Kalajdzic - Sale
Fábio Silva - Finally get a fee for him?
Hwang Hee-Chan - Sale
Jørgen Strand Larsen - Sale
Leon Chiwome - Keep
Nathan Fraser - Keep

So that'd leave us with a squad of 20 made of up mainly kids with very little experience leaving us with a 'Best XI' before any incomings of

Johnstone

Lima Toti S.Bueno H.Bueno

Rodrigo Doyle Traoré Forbs

Chirewa Chiwome

Subs: Bentley, Lonwijk, Hoever, Doherty, Cundle, Hodge, Chiquinho, González, Fraser

We'd obviously sign some players (most likely cheapish Championship journeymen) and then the more inexperienced players like Fraser might go out on loan again. We'd make an absolutely ridiculous short term profit, would have the potential of big sales in future windows from players like Lima, Rodrigo, Traoré etc if they perform well in the Championship and would have parachute payments for a few years. With a very small expenditure they could have us playing as a mid table side, potentially fighting for play-offs for a few years while they continue to look for a buyer/investor.

It obviously wouldn't be ideal for them as the value of the club would drop dramatically and the ground would be half empty every week but Fosun will have looked at the massive sales the likes of Burnley have made (over £100M this summer) with a far weaker squad than ours and I don't think will be quite as fearful of relegation as when they splurged to get Lopetegui in.

 

[Johnny75]

I was thinking about what Deutsch said earlier about what would happen to our squad if we go down.

Johnstone - Stay
Sá - Sold
Bentley - Stay
King - Stay

Semedo - Out of contract so would leave
Lima - Stay
Doherty - Unfortunately he probably stays
Hoever - They'd probably keep him as he now has Championship experience
Rayan Aït-Nouri - Big sale
Hugo Bueno - Keep
Lembikisa - Keep

Craig Dawson - Out of contract
Yerson Mosquera - Sale
Toti Gomes - Keep
Santi Bueno - Keep
Nigel Lonwijk - Keep

Mario Lemina - Out of contract. No way he stays on in the Championship
João Gomes - Big sale
André - Big sale
Tommy Doyle - Keep
Boubacar Traoré - Keep
Luke Cundle - Keep
Joe Hodge - Keep

Pablo Sarabia - Out of contract
Gonçalo Guedes - Still contacted until 2027, another loan?
Rodrigo Gomes - Keep
Carlos Forbs - Keep
Chiquinho - Keep
Chem Campbell - No idea
Enso González - Keep
Tawanda Chirewa - Keep

Matheus Cunha - Big sale
Sasa Kalajdzic - Sale
Fábio Silva - Finally get a fee for him?
Hwang Hee-Chan - Sale
Jørgen Strand Larsen - Sale
Leon Chiwome - Keep
Nathan Fraser - Keep

So that'd leave us with a squad of 20 made of up mainly kids with very little experience leaving us with a 'Best XI' before any incomings of

Johnstone

Lima Toti S.Bueno H.Bueno

Rodrigo Doyle Traoré Forbs

Chirewa Chiwome

Subs: Bentley, Lonwijk, Hoever, Doherty, Cundle, Hodge, Chiquinho, González, Fraser

We'd obviously sign some players (most likely cheapish Championship journeymen) and then the more inexperienced players like Fraser might go out on loan again. We'd make an absolutely ridiculous short term profit, would have the potential of big sales in future windows from players like Lima, Rodrigo, Traoré etc if they perform well in the Championship and would have parachute payments for a few years. With a very small expenditure they could have us playing as a mid table side, potentially fighting for play-offs for a few years while they continue to look for a buyer/investor.

It obviously wouldn't be ideal for them as the value of the club would drop dramatically and the ground would be half empty every week but Fosun will have looked at the massive sales the likes of Burnley have made (over £100M this summer) with a far weaker squad than ours and I don't think will be quite as fearful of relegation as when they splurged to get Lopetegui in.

£200m in sales and a Championship wage bill.

They could take out all of their investment in profit and sell the club for £1 if they wanted to. They would save face and make a tidy profit whilst offloading an asset they clearly no longer want.

 

[Tony Towner]

If a relegated side sells £200m worth of talent then the manager has massively underperformed

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

They can't really pull money out like that, it has to be recouped (at least on paper) through the sale of the club.

I don't think they know what they want to do with it. It's an asset (sort of) while we're a PL club and a pain in the arse when we aren't. Which is why them playing chicken with our status is patently ridiculous. We haven't even got to be very good or even particularly efficient to maintain it given the growing gulf between the top two tiers, just don't do crazy shit like refuse to sign a left back or a centre half when we obviously don't have the right numbers/quality there and the money is quite obviously there in the bank. Much as you can get away with relative murder with the fans on pricing and matchday experience, just don't obviously take the piss then try gaslighting them.

Thing is that Jeff Shi is an idiot and no-one above him keeps him in check.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

If a relegated side sells £200m worth of talent then the manager has massively underperformed

See Brodge with Leicester.

Although I would say O'Neil has an incredibly imbalanced squad and I cannot think that is his own personal choice. Why the ever living fuck have we ended up with FIVE wide players (Guedes is not a centre forward, I mean he isn't anything, he's dreadful, but that's another argument) on the bench as we did yesterday.

 

[Johnny75]

They can't really pull money out like that, it has to be recouped (at least on paper) through the sale of the club.

I don't think they know what they want to do with it. It's an asset (sort of) while we're a PL club and a pain in the arse when we aren't. Which is why them playing chicken with our status is patently ridiculous. We haven't even got to be very good or even particularly efficient to maintain it given the growing gulf between the top two tiers, just don't do crazy shit like refuse to sign a left back or a centre half when we obviously don't have the right numbers/quality there and the money is quite obviously there in the bank. Much as you can get away with relative murder with the fans on pricing and matchday experience, just don't obviously take the piss then try gaslighting them.

Thing is that Jeff Shi is an idiot and no-one above him keeps him in check.

They can do just that. If the club is in profit they can do what they like with that profit. Essentially they just pay themselves a dividend.

More than likely they load the club with debt to do that, that is a loan from Fosun to take the money out and it's repayable over time.

 

[Tony Towner]

See Brodge with Leicester.

Although I would say O'Neil has an incredibly imbalanced squad and I cannot think that is his own personal choice. Why the ever living fuck have we ended up with FIVE wide players (Guedes is not a centre forward, I mean he isn't anything, he's dreadful, but that's another argument) on the bench as we did yesterday.

Playing a central midfielder there instead of any of them is though

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

They can do just that. If the club is in profit they can do what they like with that profit. Essentially they just pay themselves a dividend

I mean legally you can just about but it makes you the Oystons and simply devalues your own asset.

All irrelevant until we work out what they actually want to do.

 

[Johnny75]

I mean legally you can just about but it makes you the Oystons and simply devalues your own asset.

All irrelevant until we work out what they actually want to do.

I trust Shi and Fosun as much as the other Chinese owners of Reading and the Albion.

 

[Lupo]

And me

Think I was too

 

[Squeak]

I was, do I win a prize? We didn't sign him until the next season either.

Played against us 22 March and we signed him on 20 September... good times...

 

[The Bear]

I think they want to sell up but don't know how to go about doing it without losing money (that they've put into the club since they bought it). The Chinese aren't interested in putting money into football any more and I think they probably resent having to put in the equity payment or whatever it's called every season to help with the PSR losses either.

That's why we're having to sell to buy every season now. It's a gamble that they'll sell the club before we end up getting relegated.

 

[Kenny]

I think they want to sell up but don't know how to go about doing it without losing money (that they've put into the club since they bought it). The Chinese aren't interested in putting money into football any more and I think they probably resent having to put in the equity payment or whatever it's called every season to help with the PSR losses either.

That's why we're having to sell to buy every season now. It's a gamble that they'll sell the club before we end up getting relegated.

I don't think they want to sell and like having the club as part of their portfolio but are now severely restricted by the Chinese Government hating investment outside of China. That is why the taps are off because they are seen to be giving money to this country and Guo is off on a secret holiday....again.

Think they want to ride it out or do things that get the Government onside, such as "we will build a huge esports arena in China thanks to using that English football clubs branding". Also why all the talk is getting investors but not buyers.

What would be helpful if I am anywhere near to being right* is getting Shi out of the club though.


*unlikely but I'm sticking to this thought process.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Objectively we aren't worth much. Natural ceiling with fanbase and the ground is forever effectively worth £0 with one major rebuilding project required soon.

 

[Tony Towner]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Saudis have invested much if any more than Fosun had transfer wise at Newcastle prior to the ladder getting pulled up at Wolves. They have just been smarter about how they did it. Villa have spent more, but with all the legal dodges we know about have turned the club into a top 4 team. It they'd continued to be smart about it, like they were in years 2 and 3 they could have taken us to that level. Fabio Silva will always be the starting point of the decline under Fosun.

 

[Del Woppio]

'Mind the gap' indeed. Seems forever ago

 

[Lupo]

'Mind the gap' indeed. Seems forever ago

The way things are going we could be swapping places with Albion which not so long ago was unthinkable

 

[jd1981]

The PSR crap our fans swallow is annoying and the shrug the shoulders attitude and believing Fosun couldn’t do anything else.
The catalogue of crap decisions since September 2020 have caused our current situation.
The “we were second tier for years, so going back there is normal” fuck off you do absolutely everything to stay away from that shite league for as long as possible.