General Wolves News

[Alan]

I'd rather have something in the GF and Pts columns than expected anything.

Right now we're flying high in the xRelegation column.

It's two matches and our xG suggests we have plenty of achievable growth in us.

If we'd somehow won both matches but had an xG of .8 (as we did last season) I would not be best pleased as it would strongly suggest that we were overperforming and that continuing to get points would be unsustainable.

As it is, we're creating chances in a sustainable way, and that by itself is a massive improvement over any post-Nuno season.

 

[The Dude]

It's two matches and our xG suggests we have plenty of achievable growth in us.

If we'd somehow won both matches but had an xG of .8 (as we did last season) I would not be best pleased as it would strongly suggest that we were overperforming and that continuing to get points would be unsustainable.

As it is, we're creating chances in a sustainable way, and that by itself is a massive improvement over any post-Nuno season.

I love it when our league position is owed to over performing.

We were a Semedo injury away from Bruno Lage over performing in to Europe a couple of years ago.

I never liked Lage, but found myself overlooking that fact due to the Pts column. It's when the over performing ended that I really turned on the PE teacher.

 

[Tony Towner]

This is why I think that argument is flawed. We are creating chances without a proven goalscorer on the pitch with the two highest last year, in a side that didn't score goals, not playing - correct me if I'm wrong but XG is not taking that into account. Haaland and Cunha will have the same XG for an identical opportunity, but there is a significantly higher chance of one scoring than the other.

 

[Alan]

This is why I think that argument is flawed. We are creating chances without a proven goalscorer on the pitch and the two highest last year, in a side that didn't score goals not playing - correct me if I'm wrong but XG is not taking that into account. Haaland and Cunha will have the same XG for an identical opportunity, but there is a significantly higher chance of one scoring than the other.

xG is about the chance itself, not the player(s) involved, by design.

If Haaland and Cunha both get, say, 10 chances with 0.5 xG, and Haaland scores 8 of them whilst Cunha scores 4, that is a very useful metric to say that Haaland is a superior finisher to Cunha.

Of the ~0.8 xG we created over the run of last season, we scored roughly half (believe our actual GF was ~0.4/90'). That, IMO, does not make xG less useful, it rightly points out that we were bad at creating chances and even worse at finishing them.

 

[Tony Towner]

Kind of proves the point then. If you haven't got players who are capable of putting the ball in the net then XG is a wasted metric, other than to demonstrate that they can't

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

But it's no good saying "our xG is good so we'll be fine". We won't be if no-one ever takes the chances, and our starting XI on Saturday had a combined 23 league goals for Wolves (Neto has 9 of them, and he has 1 goal since he got injured vs Fulham two and a half years ago).

 

[Alan]

But it's no good saying "our xG is good so we'll be fine". We won't be if no-one ever takes the chances, and our starting XI on Saturday had a combined 23 league goals for Wolves (Neto has 9 of them, and he hasn't scored for us since May 2022).

xG is only an indication, it's not telling the future. However it does suggest, by the laws of probability, that if our ability to finish chances remains exactly as shit as it was last season, we should still be able to expect an increase in aG of roughly +0.6/90'.

If we don't, then we've identified that individual execution is more at fault for our lack of scoring than our tactical patterns of play.

I don't see that as a waste, I see that as a very useful and almost objective way of judging a player's finishing ability, which I think most would agree is quite an important facet of a forward player.

 

[Wolftone]

Kind of proves the point then. If you haven't got players who are capable of putting the ball in the net then XG is a wasted metric, other than to demonstrate that they can't

As are 'assists'.
Not likely as a wide man or midfielder to get many if your strikers can't finish.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

xG is only an indication, it's not telling the future. However it does suggest, by the laws of probability, that if our ability to finish chances remains exactly as shit as it was last season, we should still be able to expect an increase in aG of roughly +0.6/90'.

If we don't, then we've identified that individual execution is more at fault for our lack of scoring than our tactical patterns of play.

It's fair that it's better to create plenty than next to nothing.

But I wouldn't want to give Andy Keogh 30 one-on-ones a season. I'd rather give 10 to Steven Fletcher.

 

[Alan]

It's fair that it's better to create plenty than next to nothing.

But I wouldn't want to give Andy Keogh 30 one-on-ones a season. I'd rather give 10 to Steven Fletcher.

Absolutely, xG does nothing to prevent you thinking that (particularly as you're correct).

The use comes when you're scouting a Keogh and a Fletcher and you can immediately point to their xG/aG ratio and say "here's some solid evidence that Fletcher will score more with fewer chances". Naturally, the same principle applies to players who are already here when making lineup decisions, planning the week's training, etc etc.

 

[Johnny75]

Absolutely, xG does nothing to prevent you thinking that (particularly as you're correct).

The use comes when you're scouting a Keogh and a Fletcher and you can immediately point to their xG/aG ratio and say "here's some solid evidence that Fletcher will score more with fewer chances". Naturally, the same principle applies to players who are already here when making lineup decisions, planning the week's training, etc etc.

This is how to use xG

 

[Dire Wolf]

I find this use of PE Teacher an unnecessary insult! For what it's worth Serena Wiegman is a former PE Teacher and I'd have her as head coach of Wolves. Not all PE teachers are like the one in Kes...

 

[Alan]

I find this use of PE Teacher an unnecessary insult! For what it's worth Serena Wiegman is a former PE Teacher and I'd have her as head coach of Wolves. Not all PE teachers are like the one in Kes...

"Those who can't do, teach. Those who can't teach, teach PE."

 

[Sam-Wolf]

It's fair that it's better to create plenty than next to nothing.

But I wouldn't want to give Andy Keogh 30 one-on-ones a season. I'd rather give 10 to Steven Fletcher.

Poor old Andy. It’s been a long time since that ‘couldn’t hit a barn door’ argument has been brought up!

In our xG chat, are there any other (regularly used) wolves strikers who were as inefficient or dare I say, even less efficient than Keogh? Not to knock his effort though - I’ll always be a big fan!

 

[The Dude]

I find this use of PE Teacher an unnecessary insult! For what it's worth Serena Wiegman is a former PE Teacher and I'd have her as head coach of Wolves. Not all PE teachers are like the one in Kes...

There's a reason she's no longer a PE teacher. She'd be the antithesis of a Bruno Lage who I think would be quite adept in a comprehensive school.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Poor old Andy. It’s been a long time since that ‘couldn’t hit a barn door’ argument has been brought up!

In our xG chat, are there any other (regularly used) wolves strikers who were as inefficient or dare I say, even less efficient than Keogh? Not to knock his effort though - I’ll always be a big fan!

Jigsaw Mason was an even worse finisher. Terrible signing.

 

[Jinky]

I'm not actually sure what GON can do anyway?

I mean, he can improve thought process, technical ability to a degree. He and his team can play out scenarios on the training pitch over & over again - but ultimately it's only the player himself that can keep a cool head and score the opportunity once they walk on the pitch on a matchday.

I've lost count of the number of training videos I've seen where we're smacking goals in all over the pitch. Then come a matchday, they look like they've never seen a net before.

GON can send out a team with tactical information and a game-plan that will result in chance creation (and we've seen it happen in both games so far, both against tough opposition, hence the much improved xG). It's not his fault that Cunha, Neto, RAN, Nunes etc etc etc completely lose it whenever they have an opportunity to score.

 

[Sam-Wolf]

Jigsaw Mason was an even worse finisher. Terrible signing.

My god, I genuinely think I may have repressed that.
Almost like Guedes, it feels as if everyone knew how it was going to play out exactly as it did.

 

[Alan]

The irony in Guedes' one goal for us being a legitimately good finish is thick enough to choke on.

 

[YoungWolf]

He scored two tbf. Got handed a goal in the cup against Liverpool