Farage Ltd and Similar Watch

[Elephant Pyjamas]

It just feels different now, people who professed to be not bothered about politics when the Tories were in power are now furious with Labour, it's really jarring. I don't know how others feel about my perception there, and it is anecdotal, but the narrative for Reform and anti Labour is much stronger, whilst there also being a lack of trust in the Tories too.

Labour should be absolutely ramming this new immigration data down everyone's throat now. But they won't, they're terrified to talk about it.

Latest yougov poll/seat projection

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993373260147298752

 

[leedswolf]

 

[Wilf Wolf]

I see so much hatred of Starmer on social media from people that never said a word against the Tories. It’s almost as if it’s trendy to just dismiss everything he says and does. There’s so much disinformation and downright lies stirring these people up that I’m not sure how Labour fight back other than to hope the economy improves and they can show some tangible benefits before the election. Starmer just has no charisma and that’s a major issue in the world of politics today. I’d put good money on him being replaced before the next election whatever happens as he’s becoming a problem not the solution for Labour.

 

[lemonjelly]

I think a lot of people are under estimating the traction farage/reform are getting. A large silent majority like them. The collapsed tory vote has gone to them. The vocal minority has deep currents.

 

[EpsomWolf]

The election is a long way off. People are already seeing Reform are utterly incompetent but there’s no appetite for Labour or the Tories anymore. That then drives the left to the Greens but protects Reform as any wavering support digs in to defend against the ‘radical’ left.

I’d love a competent Labour government and haven’t quite yet given up hope, but I think the net result of all of the above is the shitshow of Nige as PM.

 

[Langers]

There are a LOT of people who don't give a shit about policies but do care about personality. There are also a LOT of people who appear to be angry about something, but they don't quite know what, so go with what they think they should be angry at. There are also a lot of racist people in this country whose votes count as much as ours do.

And as Farage - who does have a personality, in the same way that Oswald Mosley had a personality - and thousands of suddenly emboldened racists are so loudly braying, that something is forrin brown people. Racism is becoming more socially acceptable every fucking day, and it sickens me.

It's going to take a hell of a lot of work to reverse this way of thinking for a lot of people, and to convince a lot of people to do whatever they can to keep these incompetent racists out. I'm not convinced this version of Labour are up to the job.

 

[Wilf Wolf]

Whilst Labour are never going to win over the racists that flocked to Reform the danger is that if they aren’t seen to be getting a reduction in migrants coming across the Channel Reform will start appealing to more moderate voters, the kind that voted for Labour and gave them a huge majority. These voters have already shown they’re not wedded to one party and if they start thinking”well Farage has got a point” it’s game over for Labour. That’s why they’re going down the Danish route, it’s pragmatic politics as every Labour MP knows that if they aren’t seen to be winning the immigration battle not only will Reform do something more radical but perhaps more importantly Reform will have a whole array of ill thought out dog-whistle proposals that will do real damage for decades to come. Everything from the environment to welfare will be destroyed by Reform.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

The other big problem Labour has is they have lost a huge chunk of people whi would have held their nose and voted for them - the anybody but a Tory vote. Tactical voting needs a potential alternative to the Tories and Labour arent it.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

And of course, the story now is that the Tories aren't that bad.

Everyone is blaming RR for Fiscal drag, rather than the Tories who started it. ( a lot of people didn't know what it was 2 weeks ago)

No one is looking at the Tories for our public services being knackered, that's Labour's fault somehow.

And I've even seen people giving Sunak credit for the reduced immigration figures, the same people who are blaming Starmer for the "boats'!

Sigh..

 

[Del Woppio]

If Farage gets them angry enough, and big two pander to rather than fighting his narrative, he'll absolutely piss it. Every single Leave voter is a potential Reform voter. This talk that they're just a fringe nuisance not to be taken seriously is delusional

 

[Templeton Peck]

It's going exactly as I expected it to go sadly - Labour doing nothing of note followed by Farage. Greens are the only way out of this mess.

 

[Templeton Peck]

And of course, the story now is that the Tories aren't that bad.

Everyone is blaming RR for Fiscal drag, rather than the Tories who started it. ( a lot of people didn't know what it was 2 weeks ago)

No one is looking at the Tories for our public services being knackered, that's Labour's fault somehow.

And I've even seen people giving Sunak credit for the reduced immigration figures, the same people who are blaming Starmer for the "boats'!

Sigh..

Last year a local council closed a pool as a result of years of Tory cuts. Colleague was talking about it. He said 'my mate who worked there said Labour won and now there's no money so the pool is closed'. This was greeted with lots of sad nodding of heads.

 

[Templeton Peck]

The other big problem Labour has is they have lost a huge chunk of people whi would have held their nose and voted for them - the anybody but a Tory vote. Tactical voting needs a potential alternative to the Tories and Labour arent it.

Yeah they've fucked that. Trouble is Morgan McSweeney still thinks its 1994.

 

[prawnking]

Greens are the only way out of this mess.

That's a pretty big leap for a decent chunk of the electorate though, I think.

If they make even more headway over the next couple of years, the media scrutiny on them (particularly Polanski, and especially on areas where they may be seen as 'pacifist/woke') will get pretty fierce

 

[Templeton Peck]

That's a pretty big leap for a decent chunk of the electorate though, I think.

If they make even more headway over the next couple of years, the media scrutiny on them (particularly Polanski, and especially on areas where they may be seen as 'pacifist/woke') will get pretty fierce

Polanski has made them genuine contenders in a matter of months. Polling in second place with some firms. There's a huge space for them too with Starmer trying to grab Reform votes. They'll also be the only party with a pledge to rejoin the EU. (Libs are less clear)

I do hear you though.

 

[basher]

You need 326 seats to have a majority.

I think Deutsch summed it up best, where are they (Reform) going to find that many individuals that won't have so much shit in their past that they'd be palatable to the electorate in sufficient numbers.

I don't see it personally.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

You need 326 seats to have a majority.

I think Deutsch summed it up best, where are they (Reform) going to find that many individuals that won't have so much shit in their past that they'd be palatable to the electorate in sufficient numbers.

I don't see it personally.

I think we have already seen, and will see again next year, that there is a significant number of voters that don’t give a shit. They are voting for Farage not the individual candidate. In the last GE they struggled to turn votes into seats because their votes were too thinly spread. They came second in 98 seats with just over 14% of the vote nationally. Their subsequent increase in support means they have probably crossed the FPTP threshold that enables them to win big particularly with a fractured opposition vote.