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Farage Ltd and Similar Watch

Paddingtonwolf said:
More tactical standing down of candidates to block Le Pen.
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That's what I meant by coordinated. Parties cooperating with each each other. Should have happened in 2019 but Labour wouldn't play ball.
 
Paddingtonwolf said:
There is a good chance his centrists will still be in power if the newly formed left wing block can’t agree to form up in power.

They definitely will be before Le Pen and co get a go. So his gamble while not entirely paying off has worked out a lot better than Dushface’s and there isn’t a lot of price to pay.
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The left won't have anywhere near enough seats to form a government. There will be a hung parliament and a very uncertain future. The stock markets will have a field day.
Why it wasn't a good idea to have a snap election, is because there was a very good chance that extremists were going to get in to power, be it from the right or from the left.
 
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Hung parliament is a common thing in Europe. The markets were spooked by le pen and will recover. He got away with it.

Especially if the left block fight and his mob step in.
 
Paddingtonwolf said:
Hung parliament is a common thing in Europe. The markets were spooked by le pen and will recover. He got away with it.

Especially if the left block fight and his mob step in.
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A few things there, hung parliaments are common in Europe, but not where you aren't allowed to have a new election for a year.

If the left block fight, which is quite common in France, Macron can't step in, as he can't form a government and there is not an election for a year.

Whatever happens, France is in for a very uncertain time ahead.

It is great that Le Pen didn't get in, but Macron's party or the left alliance don't have enough votes or a mandate to govern.

As far as I can see, Melenchon, the leader of the extreme left is not someone Macron should be doing deals with, as he is anti NATO, anti EU, anti German, antisemitic and pro Putin, blaming NATO for the war in Ukraine and he also refuses to call Hamas terrorists.

Anti-German, soft on Putin – Mélenchon is no saviour of the left | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | The Guardian

amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org
 
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If the left block cannot form a coalition because of infighting, then Macron's party will be invited to try. If he can get the less psycho elements of the left onside then there may be a majority. If the left are able to form a coalition then it goes tits up then it is minority government led by whomever is the strongest among them, as you say.

I know that France could be hamstrung by minority government as there can't be the old Italian scenario of elections every six months. However, this is infinitely better than having Le Pen anywhere near power. The snap election was a gamble that came very close to having the absolute worst outcome, but this has been avoided and it is now clear that when the alternative is Le Pen in charge, France will do everything to prevent that, which is a sort of respectable outcome if it denudes them forever. That does not mean the final outcome is great though. I think Macron will be in trouble in the presidential elections.
 
Paddingtonwolf said:
If the left block cannot form a coalition because of infighting, then Macron's party will be invited to try. If he can get the less psycho elements of the left onside then there may be a majority. If the left are able to form a coalition then it goes tits up then it is minority government led by whomever is the strongest among them, as you say.

I know that France could be hamstrung by minority government as there can't be the old Italian scenario of elections every six months. However, this is infinitely better than having Le Pen anywhere near power. The snap election was a gamble that came very close to having the absolute worst outcome, but this has been avoided and it is now clear that when the alternative is Le Pen in charge, France will do everything to prevent that, which is a sort of respectable outcome if it denudes them forever. That does not mean the final outcome is great though. I think Macron will be in trouble in the presidential elections.
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Macron can't stand to be elected again.
 
Interesting. As the Prime Minister has stood down after this debacle, I wonder who the centrists would have to put forward. Time will tell I guess.
 
The frightening thing about the French elections are that the RN vote went up from 4 million in 2022, to 11 million yesterday, which is more than the Labour Party got to form the UK government.

It is true that the left block got the most seats yesterday, which is what counts, but the RN percentage went up from 33.3% in the first round to 37.3% yesterday. The left block's percentage actually went down from just over 28% in the first round, to 26.9% yesterday. Macron's party was a distant 3rd percentage wise, to 22.3%, that is 15% behind the fascist far right RN party.

The reality is Le Pen was kept out, which was the objective, but not only did they recieve the most votes and the highest percentage, but they are the only party that increased their percentage of votes, of the 3 main blocks.

For the extreme right to have over 37% of the votes, plus easily the most votes and to be the only party to increase their percentage of votes out of the 3 main blocks, is very worrying.

Macron is in a very precarious position, because if he does a deal with the hard left, he could well alienate his own voters and push them towards Le Pen, which would be catastrophic for France and Western democracies.

Screenshot_20240708_135225_Chrome.jpg
 
Walshes Wolves said:
The frightening thing about the French elections are that the RN vote went up from 4 million in 2022, to 11 million yesterday, which is more than the Labour Party got to form the UK government.

It is true that the left block got the most seats yesterday, which is what counts, but the RN percentage went up from 33.3% in the first round to 37.3% yesterday. The left block's percentage actually went down from just over 28% in the first round, to 26.9% yesterday. Macron's party was a distant 3rd percentage wise, to 22.3%, that is 15% behind the fascist far right RN party.

The reality is Le Pen was kept out, which was the objective, but not only did they recieve the most votes and the highest percentage, but they are the only party that increased their percentage of votes, of the 3 main blocks.

For the extreme right to have over 37% of the votes, plus easily the most votes and to be the only party to increase their percentage of votes out of the 3 main blocks, is very worrying.

Macron is in a very precarious position, because if he does a deal with the hard left, he could well alienate his own voters and push them towards Le Pen, which would be catastrophic for France and Western democracies.

View attachment 10979
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Surely the changes in % share of the vote reflects that a fair number of candidates have stood down? You can’t vote for a party if they’ve got no candidate.
 
Wilf Wolf said:
Surely the changes in % share of the vote reflects that a fair number of candidates have stood down? You can’t vote for a party if they’ve got no candidate.
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Well the point is, the left block and Macron's party, actually had a smaller percentage of the vote in the second round and Le Pen's party increased their percentage.
The only thing that really matters, is the far right didn't get in, but increasing their vote from 4 million to 11 million from 2022 means an increasing amount of people are being driven to the far right, and this a very worrying trend.
 
Yeah it's like looking at the 1931 general election in the UK and going "holy shit, Stanley Baldwin, electoral king." Easy to win 470 seats if you're not standing against half the opposition parties you normally stand against.

RN rise is terrifying, but the % for the left and Macronist blocs should be seen as a combined figure since they weren't standing against each other. And as that's effectively a two-party breakdown it's encouraging that Le Pen probably doesn't have as good a chance in the next presidential election as it seemed.
 
pr0sl0 said:
Yeah it's like looking at the 1931 general election in the UK and going "holy shit, Stanley Baldwin, electoral king." Easy to win 470 seats if you're not standing against half the opposition parties you normally stand against.

RN rise is terrifying, but the % for the left and Macronist blocs should be seen as a combined figure since they weren't standing against each other. And as that's effectively a two-party breakdown it's encouraging that Le Pen probably doesn't have as good a chance in the next presidential election as it seemed.
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The left and Macron have nothing in common apart from not letting RN in. You can't run a country, with two blocks that are directly opposed politically, because they aren't compatible and you will never get anything through in parliament and the financial markets will not favour the instability.
 
Beginning to look more and more likely that an undetermined number of Reform candidates don't actually exist
 
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My only terms of reference are social media clips, but France's far right seem to be a lot younger than ours. Obviously that's a sweeping generalisation, but if accurate more concerning long term for them than it is for us
 
Tony Towner said:
My only terms of reference are social media clips, but France's far right seem to be a lot younger than ours. Obviously that's a sweeping generalisation, but if accurate more concerning long term for them than it is for us
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Social media.
 
Walshes Wolves said:
Social media.
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Well, essentially it's social media that gives me a window into Reform voters and they are predominantly over 55, in France under 35, not saying that's reality, just the social media reflection in the UK
 
Tony Towner said:
Well, essentially it's social media that gives me a window into Reform voters and they are predominantly over 55, in France under 35, not saying that's reality, just the social media reflection in the UK
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www.lemonde.fr

Why is Jordan Bardella so popular among young French voters?

Whether on TikTok or at rallies, the far-right candidate is garnering support among certain sectors of France's high school, university, and young working demographics.
www.lemonde.fr www.lemonde.fr
 
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