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Climate Change Debate

Visage said:
Also, the pause isnt a pause at all. Its a statistical aberration. Ever wonder why its always 1998 (or possibly a year either side) thats chosen as the start point?

Its because that year there was a very strong El Nino - global temperatues spiked taht year. Then, over subsequent years, the effect died away, and temperatures stayed fairly stable - a long term trend (AGW) was masked by a short term trend (post El Nino temperature drop).

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

See - 1998 was *huge*. What you're doing is the equivalent of going to a beach after high tide has passed and gone 'Look! the sea level isnt rising! Its falling! AGW is bunk! Drinks all round!'....
Click to expand...
I'll just dig this out again...

Sent from my HTC One M9 using Tapatalk
 
On the original article theres a link to a useful tool for plotting temperature graphs. Using it I came up with this:

trend


The blue line is the trend from 1998 onwards - fairly flat - OMG THERES NO WARMING.
The green line is the trend from 1999 onwards - therefore ignoring the random hot year in 1998. Clearly the trend line is significantly different.

Now, you can pick any year you want to look at a trend line - so why do skeptics *always* pick 1998? Is it because its the one year that makes their claims vaguely seem sensible?
 
Haven't you done the same thing there? If you went from 2002 it would also be flat.

Statistics eh?
 
Indeed. There are a small number of years where you can make the trend line flat. But for the mast majority of years it isnt. Thats exactly the point.
 
Following on from the conversation in the annoy thread, Wales is now leading the way on recycling. We're currently at 60%, with 64% anticipated for 2020 and 70% by 2025.

It's a pity the other UK countries don't make this a priority in their budget(s).
 
Cyclical blah blah data blah blah hockey stick blah blah china.
 
I kind of miss HGW's posts on here. What's happened to him?
 
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