There is absolutely no way most people will go along with any restrictions they impose now. Why the heck should they? I've followed the guidelines since the beginning. This time? Fuck 'em, what's the point?
Don't think this is true. At no point since this started have I followed the rules because they were the rules - especially because the rules have pretty much always been inconsistent with our scientific understanding of the virus, confusing, or just plain pointless. But I've absolutely made every effort to try and reduce both my chances of catching the virus, and of giving it to anyone else. It's why I still wear a mask when indoors or on public transport, for example. I don't
want to, but that's not the point. It's just what we have to do, collectively, to stop things getting worse, and make the point where none of us have to wear masks come sooner.
Wouldn't be surprised if this makes people who were already resistant to changing their behaviour more stubborn - across the spectrum, from outright conspiracy theorists to the merely pissed off and reluctant - but, at the same time, if it's clear there's another wave coming which makes some activities riskier then that's going to also lead to plenty of people not doing those activities, new rules or no. There was already a mass move to working from home/cancelling large events pre-March 2020 lockdown, for example.
I have no doubt that they're gonna throw out this "Plan B" thing now as a distraction, because it's them, but it doesn't change the wider calculus that things still aren't back to "normal" yet, and there's another speed bump coming up before we get there. If they hadn't been so appallingly incompetent (if not outright malicious) throughout the last two years then maybe they could actually just issue new advice and most people would trust them enough to take it into account. Maybe even support people and businesses in sectors that would be hit worst. But no, bar the one-off of furlough they're all stick, no carrot - for us, not them.