Aston Villa

[Sniffer]

My fag packet calculations.

Parachute payments will fall by £17m in the 2018/2019 season and the players sales this season haven't been anything of note (2017/18 £16m profit).

Operating Loss 2018 = £54m + £17m (re fall in parachute payments) = estimated Operating Loss for 2019 £71m

Less £20m allowable FFP costs (£15m in 2018) = £51m FFP Loss
2019 Allowable FFP Losses = £14m

Savings to be made to stay within FFP = £37m

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

68 million emergency equity injection from the new owners looks like the only thing saving them from immediate liquidation. And then 48 million of that has been turned into shares and the proceeds used to pay off Xia. The bloke was an absolute charlatan.

They have two possibilities

a) somehow get promoted, and then their financial picture looks like a slightly less healthy version of ours.

b) fail to get promoted and they absolutely HAVE to sell Grealish and McGinn, and realistically a few others or they have next to no hope of avoiding a breach. Especially as the HS2 compensation of 3m for Bodymoor Heath is a one off item, and their fudged youth development increase is unlikely to wash for a second year. There will need to be drastic changes.

Shame.

 

[Tony Towner]

Makes their loss about the same as ours if we hadn't got promoted

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It doesn't.

Our loss includes OVER 20 million in promotion bonuses and transfer add-ons.

 

[Tony Towner]

£55m-£20m = £35m, so in the same ball park as their £36m unless you are having a day of pedantry

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47468115

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Their loss is 54m so no idea what you are talking about

 

[Tony Towner]

The link may be a clue

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

That is a consolidated group account for Recon. AVFC had trading losses of 54 million.

On top of that, Recon consolidated includes 68 million of emergency injection from the new owners to prop it up. And also 40m plus of broadcast revenue from a parachute payment.

Safe to say that financially we are poles apart.

 

[Penk Wolf]

https://twitter.com/yorkshireavfc/status/1103428294291189761?s=21

 

[Sniffer]

https://twitter.com/yorkshireavfc/status/1103428294291189761?s=21

A good read that is Penk. I think that his detailed analysis has them having a shortfall of £8m less than my fag packet calculations. Having increases in gate receipts (£2m), Shirt sales (£4m? 80,000 shirts?) and HS2 compensation isn't something I'd considered.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I fail to see why HS2 compensation should be anything other than a one-off item. It is effectively a compulsory purchase order and that only happens once.

 

[Sniffer]

I fail to see why HS2 compensation should be anything other than a one-off item. It is effectively a compulsory purchase order and that only happens once.

My thoughts as well. What he has highlighted is that post Year End player sales can be included to offset losses. Jack Grealish and/or the so called McGinniesta will need to be sold after the season ends to make the allowable FFP losses balance when they don't go up.

When you consider that Mings, Tuanzebe, Hause, Abraham and El Ghazi will be gone too they have an almost complete rebuild job on their hands.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Their squad is going to be an absolute shell. And then they are going to be avoiding the drop for a couple of seasons until the big loss years are removed from their FFP rolling calculation before the owners can actually flex their financial muscles.

Really it does look like going up this season is their only way of avoiding a near decade of mediocrity (at best).

Moral of the story - if you get relegated from the Premier League gravy train, probably best not to do it with a loss of over 50 million in the season it goes wrong.

 

[Lupo]

The Grealish attacker is out after just 4 weeks. What a fucking tool:

https://www.aol.co.uk/sport/2019/04..._6OdAJRPT9MtRQxA_bgj7b1hHaEv4OmNIDuZs6D4FIJAU

 

[darlowolf64]

The Grealish attacker is out after just 4 weeks. What a fucking tool:

https://www.aol.co.uk/sport/2019/04..._6OdAJRPT9MtRQxA_bgj7b1hHaEv4OmNIDuZs6D4FIJAU

Instant mega hero for Blues scum

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Very lucky boy.In other Villa news I see Steve Gibson wants Villa, Sheffield Wednesday and Derby investigated over FFP. The Smoggie Androzani...

 

[darlowolf64]

Very lucky boy.In other Villa news I see Steve Gibson wants Villa, Sheffield Wednesday and Derby investigated over FFP. The Smoggie Androzani...

It's quite amusing though... At least 2 of those teams signed a letter demanding the EFL investigate us and here we are, one year later and they've done much worse than we ever did

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Grass bastards, the lot of them.

Snitches get stitches.

 

[Parkins left foot]

Really not sure why are fussed what they do - they are an irrelavence

 

[Derby Wolf]

Boro gambled last season but recouped alot from Traore to us, Gibson to Burnley and Bamford to Leeds. Best part of £40m.

Don't agree with doing things publically but Boro at least had saleable assets to dig themselves out, like we did.