The TWF Horse Racing Thread

[Nando]

Softer ground would only help Appreciate It in my view. He's seen off the best of the Irish quite comfortably in soft and soft/heavy. I'd give Ballyadam a squeak of turning the form around if the ground was good to soft, but it is not looking likely.

Metier won the Tolworth nicely, but that was quite possibly one of the worst G1's ever run - the form of those in behind since is woeful.

I'm probably going to play Irascible each way before tomorrow's dec whilst the 5 places are on offer.

 

[slink]

The supreme looks awful to me this year. Appreciate It has been winning easily over in Ireland but against out of form horses or on ground that suits him as he will definitely stay further. He could and probably will be good enough but i'd rather take him on at 6/4-7/4 however there's very little to take him on with when you look at what we know so far.

Ballyadam - Would need less rain to get closer to Appreciate it.
Metier - Will like the ground if it continues to rain and been winning easily but in nothing races.
Soaring Glory - Won the Betfair well but shouldn't be good enough to win the Supreme and still might not run.
Blue Lord - Possibly not going, would run well imo with a stronger pace to run at.
Irascible - Can't see him getting closer to Appreciate It.
Bob Olinger - Wins the Ballymore.
Ganapathi - Surely not good enough.

I could go on but it just screams find something at a bigger price to hit the frame so at the moment i think Keskonrisk and Gowel Road fit the bill. Might have a couple of small e/w bets on them (can only see 4 places with PP and betfair) but it will be very small stakes.

 

[slink]

Tried to get on Gowel Road on the Betfair Sportsbook and they'll let me have a maximum of £7.50 on to win, £5 e/w is fine but if i want to boost it from 20/1 to 22/1 they will only let me have £1.23 e/w. How do they even get any business?

 

[Trips]

The supreme looks awful to me this year. Appreciate It has been winning easily over in Ireland but against out of form horses or on ground that suits him as he will definitely stay further. He could and probably will be good enough but i'd rather take him on at 6/4-7/4 however there's very little to take him on with when you look at what we know so far.

Ballyadam - Would need less rain to get closer to Appreciate it.
Metier - Will like the ground if it continues to rain and been winning easily but in nothing races.
Soaring Glory - Won the Betfair well but shouldn't be good enough to win the Supreme and still might not run.
Blue Lord - Possibly not going, would run well imo with a stronger pace to run at.
Irascible - Can't see him getting closer to Appreciate It.
Bob Olinger - Wins the Ballymore.
Ganapathi - Surely not good enough.

I could go on but it just screams find something at a bigger price to hit the frame so at the moment i think Keskonrisk and Gowel Road fit the bill. Might have a couple of small e/w bets on them (can only see 4 places with PP and betfair) but it will be very small stakes.

I'm the same with Appreciate It, I've been wanting to take it on as it's too short a price. It's not a Monkfish, Shishkin et al banker. Trouble is I can't find what beats it, especially with the ground softening and more rain forecast. Very weak renewal of the Supreme

 

[Nando]

His price is fair enough to my eye - he's comfortably won the two best 2m novice trials going and nothing else has really come out of the woodwork. I wonder whether there could be a Tuesday morning drift, I'd be tempted to get involved quite seriously if he hit 2/1. I've got him in a few accas/L15s, but have nothing else in the race as it stands.

The Irish programme just craps all over the UK one for novice hurdlers. Particularly dreadful this year with Cheltenham losing two meetings and the ground being tragic since Christmas.

 

[Trips]

Royal Pagaille confirmed for the Gold Cup

 

[slink]

Entries out for Tuesday, only 8 runners in the Supreme and 6 in the Arkle which is a bit disappointing. Ultima doesn't look great unless you're Nando and sitting on Happygolucky @20s. Champion, Mares and the boodles look good races though and the NH chase looks ok.

 

[Trips]

Altior and Annie Mc not running Wednesday.

That would be it for me with Altior, a wonderful horse in his prime and should be now off to enjoy retirement

 

[Nando]

Nicky has hand an absolute fucking mare with him. To be honest, he's had a fucking mare all season. He's got no runners in the Supreme, Ballymore, Bartlett or Triumph. That's astonishing for a trainer of that calibre.

Ladbrokes are offering a £5 freebie if you log in to your account.

Paddy doing a free £5 each day that you have to claim in advance.

Sky are also doing money back on the Ballymore. £10 max.

Betfair have also given me a free £10 from nowhere so worth checking your account.

 

[Nando]

I've added Kilfilum Cross for the Kim Muir at 20's. That is a wild, wild price.

Placed in the last two running's, where he's only beaten by a stinking Irish plot in both cases. He's dropped to 135 from 138 last year and has the added bonus of Alex Edwards claiming 3lb having turned professional so he can continue riding so he's now 6lb better off than this time last year.

The fav here is looking more and more likely to swerve to the Midlands Natinal on Saturday which will shake up the market.

 

[The Bear]

I'll be having a piece of Kilfilum Cross too. Picked him out yesterday.

 

[The Bear]

If anyone isn't with Virgin Bet, they are offering £40 in free bets when you deposit £10. 2 x £10 to start with and £5 every day of Cheltenham.

 

[Nando]

Absolutely huge move for Honeysuckle today. Into 13/8! 4/1 with 4 places about Epatante has to be ripe for filthy EW accas.

The handicap markets are wild for tomorrow - with the enhanced place offerings it goes to show that you're largely going to be better off waiting for 48 hour decs. I've got a lovely position on Happygolucky (he's a mad price now though), but Zoff has gone from 12's back out to 25's today with 6 places on offer so I've cashed and re-backed.

I'll chance Hell Red at 40's with Nicholls' record in this. Thought he looked very smart on debut, choked badly at Cheltenham and then was just out for a spin last time out to get a run into him, even if he was 1/3.

 

[slink]

I know it's rained and i think she's probably the most likely winner but she's a silly price now. If the race is run as it looks like it will i can't have Abracadabras out of the frame @8's and HIlls are doing 5 places i think.

 

[Donegal Wolf]

I know it's rained and i think she's probably the most likely winner but she's a silly price now. If the race is run as it looks like it will i can't have Abracadabras out of the frame @8's and HIlls are doing 5 places i think.

That's my thinking as well.

 

[Trips]

4 places on the Champion Hurdle with skybet. 7 places for Ultima with 17 runners!

 

[The Bear]

Yeah I'm already all over the Ultima on Skybet. Had a couple of e/w's.

 

[The Bear]

Just looking at that race, how come Cepage has got 11st 12lbs when Admiral's Secret has much better form but is only on 10st 10lbs?

Is it down to the grade/class of races?

 

[slink]

Yeah exactly that Bear running in better quality races and won a couple of them carrying 11st 12lbs but it's all pretty much over 2m4f, don't think he truly gets 3 miles.

 

[Sniffer]

Ultima - Happygolucky.

Bailey has confirmed this is his target and his profile suits the race perfectly. Has won 2/3 of his novice chases, inc a course and distance win in December before being put away for the winter. He followed a similar path as a novice hurdler, before returning at the Festival with a 4th in the Martin Pipe when hindered by the faller at the last before staying on readily.

It is a race that UK trainers dominate in and whilst Gordon will eventually plot one up for it, it appears that his potential candidates for this are likely to look elsewhere. Now best priced 20s NRNB and I'd be surprised if he's not top five in the market on the day.

Cheers Nando - I've cashed out at the equivalent of a winning bet at todays odds with plenty left still riding on the result.