The TWF Horse Racing Thread
- Thread starter Nando
- Start date
slink
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,663
- Reaction score
- 1,913
Yeah if PM is saying that i think he means it, not something you would expect him to come out and say if it wasn't what they thought. I mean Allaho could still win, all things considered he looks the likeliest winner but as i said yesterday i do think one of them will be better on the day.
5/1 does look a big price not just on the weekends performances but the seasons and those likely to line up against them. I do think The Big Breakaway has a performance in him though and i would love Altior to come back to form to make a race of the Queen Mother.
I've no doubt that the Big Breakaway will be a very good staying chaser in the future, but he's so so raw at the moment. He's still got some real filling out to do and his head-carriage is all over the shop. I could see him turning up in the Charlie Hall and running very well next season with another summer at grass under his belt. It took Topofthegame that extra year to look so good (what a miss he is now) and they're very similar in terms of being huge leggy beasts that haven't quite relaxed into being 3m chasers.
I've been impressed with Next Destination and particularly Eklat de Rire who both look straightforward and jump like stayers but I'd be astonished if they can lay upto Monkfish . Latest Exhibition is very good in his own right and I'd probably make him a strong fav without Monkfish if the ground was decent, but he's just been laughed at and it seems Nolan might not even bring him over now.
I've been impressed with Next Destination and particularly Eklat de Rire who both look straightforward and jump like stayers but I'd be astonished if they can lay upto Monkfish . Latest Exhibition is very good in his own right and I'd probably make him a strong fav without Monkfish if the ground was decent, but he's just been laughed at and it seems Nolan might not even bring him over now.
Forgot to stick up some of my fancied longer priced handicap fancies:
Ultima - Happygolucky.
Bailey has confirmed this is his target and his profile suits the race perfectly. Has won 2/3 of his novice chases, inc a course and distance win in December before being put away for the winter. He followed a similar path as a novice hurdler, before returning at the Festival with a 4th in the Martin Pipe when hindered by the faller at the last before staying on readily.
It is a race that UK trainers dominate in and whilst Gordon will eventually plot one up for it, it appears that his potential candidates for this are likely to look elsewhere. Now best priced 20s NRNB and I'd be surprised if he's not top five in the market on the day.
Boodles - Glorious Zoff
Gordon Elliott and festival handicaps? Need I say more. Connections have confirmed this is his target as recently as today. Gord included him in his mark hunting entries at Mussleburgh where he was given 131 which is perfect to get him in towards the foot of the weights. Absolutely gagged up on hurdle debut and has been tenderly minded since. Power's ride on him at Doncaster was a classic in
Has since won nicely on the all-weather to keep him away from the rancid winter ground and he has a very similar profile to Veneer of Charm who won this for Gord back in 2018. The top three in the market won't run and Duffle Coat and Hacker des Places are doubtful and confirmed out respectively. Tritonic and Heross du Seuil are likely to go to the Triumph and Good Ball is supposedly being kept away to campaign in open novice handicaps. That's 8 of the top 10 in the market either out, or highly unlikely to run. 33/1 in places or 25/1 NRNB won't last long in those circumstances
Wouldn't put you off Nicholls' Houx Gris available at 20/1s or 16/1 NRNB or Gord's mare Riviere D'Etel who they've confirmed targets this.
Coral Cup - Janika & Call Me Lord
I have a suspicion that Nicky is up to his magic tricks again with these two. Both very good horses at their best (160+), but have shown very little so far this season.
Janika, whilst not being a frequent winner is now rated 145 over hurdles after an absolutely classic 'not today' ride when held up last time at Ascot before being asked for an effort which petered out just as quickly. At his peak he was a 164 chaser and was only beaten 1/2 length off 156 in the Plate in 2019 and was 158 over hurdles when running in the Relkeel just over a year ago. 50/1 available or 33/1 NRNB.
Call Me Lord is now down to 150 from a peak of 160 which he achieved after winning the International over 2m at Cheltenham in December 19 before going off a 10/1 shot in the Champion. Now whilst he hasn't been given the out the back of the TV treatment, he's continued running in good graded races where he's looked like being outpaced despite having a formbook littered with very good 2m form. I suspect Nicky hasn't had him anywhere near peak fitness and has been eyeing up a big pot. 20/1 NRNB
Nicky has won the last two renewals, including with William Henry off 151 and previously with Whisper off 153 so has form for priming one from a mark that doesn't scream 'plot' on paper.
Ultima - Happygolucky.
Bailey has confirmed this is his target and his profile suits the race perfectly. Has won 2/3 of his novice chases, inc a course and distance win in December before being put away for the winter. He followed a similar path as a novice hurdler, before returning at the Festival with a 4th in the Martin Pipe when hindered by the faller at the last before staying on readily.
It is a race that UK trainers dominate in and whilst Gordon will eventually plot one up for it, it appears that his potential candidates for this are likely to look elsewhere. Now best priced 20s NRNB and I'd be surprised if he's not top five in the market on the day.
Boodles - Glorious Zoff
Gordon Elliott and festival handicaps? Need I say more. Connections have confirmed this is his target as recently as today. Gord included him in his mark hunting entries at Mussleburgh where he was given 131 which is perfect to get him in towards the foot of the weights. Absolutely gagged up on hurdle debut and has been tenderly minded since. Power's ride on him at Doncaster was a classic in
Has since won nicely on the all-weather to keep him away from the rancid winter ground and he has a very similar profile to Veneer of Charm who won this for Gord back in 2018. The top three in the market won't run and Duffle Coat and Hacker des Places are doubtful and confirmed out respectively. Tritonic and Heross du Seuil are likely to go to the Triumph and Good Ball is supposedly being kept away to campaign in open novice handicaps. That's 8 of the top 10 in the market either out, or highly unlikely to run. 33/1 in places or 25/1 NRNB won't last long in those circumstances
Wouldn't put you off Nicholls' Houx Gris available at 20/1s or 16/1 NRNB or Gord's mare Riviere D'Etel who they've confirmed targets this.
Coral Cup - Janika & Call Me Lord
I have a suspicion that Nicky is up to his magic tricks again with these two. Both very good horses at their best (160+), but have shown very little so far this season.
Janika, whilst not being a frequent winner is now rated 145 over hurdles after an absolutely classic 'not today' ride when held up last time at Ascot before being asked for an effort which petered out just as quickly. At his peak he was a 164 chaser and was only beaten 1/2 length off 156 in the Plate in 2019 and was 158 over hurdles when running in the Relkeel just over a year ago. 50/1 available or 33/1 NRNB.
Call Me Lord is now down to 150 from a peak of 160 which he achieved after winning the International over 2m at Cheltenham in December 19 before going off a 10/1 shot in the Champion. Now whilst he hasn't been given the out the back of the TV treatment, he's continued running in good graded races where he's looked like being outpaced despite having a formbook littered with very good 2m form. I suspect Nicky hasn't had him anywhere near peak fitness and has been eyeing up a big pot. 20/1 NRNB
Nicky has won the last two renewals, including with William Henry off 151 and previously with Whisper off 153 so has form for priming one from a mark that doesn't scream 'plot' on paper.
slink
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,663
- Reaction score
- 1,913
Looks like you're in a good position with Happygolucky Nando. I've not even looked at the handicaps and won't until Cheltenham week, i just find too many that interest me and i can't narrow it down.
After the weekend there looks to be some really top class battles in a few of the top races, can't wait to see the Arkle with Allmankind, Shishkin and Energumene. The Champion looks like it could be a class too with Epatante, Honeysuckle and Goshen.
Less than 3 weeks to go now, can't wait for it even if we can't be there this year. I know the build up for what seems the entire year annoys some people but for me it's the best week of racing and deserves the build up.
After the weekend there looks to be some really top class battles in a few of the top races, can't wait to see the Arkle with Allmankind, Shishkin and Energumene. The Champion looks like it could be a class too with Epatante, Honeysuckle and Goshen.
Less than 3 weeks to go now, can't wait for it even if we can't be there this year. I know the build up for what seems the entire year annoys some people but for me it's the best week of racing and deserves the build up.
Agreed, my favourite week of the year!
The Champion Hurdle shaping to be a great race, although I don't see Allmankind getting involved with the 2 at the head of the betting in the Arkle
slink
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,663
- Reaction score
- 1,913
The thing with Allmankind is while i don't think he has as much talent as the other 2 his style of racing as long as he jumps as he did in his first 2 chases will put him in the race.
I only really start to take a look at the handicaps when NRNB is available - otherwise as you say you're going to potentially be backing 100s. With entries now out and the markets responding accordingly, a lot of the value has gone and you're probably much better off doing exactly what you're doing. I suspect the markets for the handicaps will be much more favourable on the day with enhanced place terms - you just have to watch out for the JP plunges!
The Arkle is going to be some sight fingers crossed - hopefully makes up for some of the recent dreadful renewals. All I hope is that we don't have a repeat of Saint Calvados and Petit Mouchoir absolutely murdering each other. I'd like to think Townend is astute enough to not let that happen and Energuneme seems sufficiently tractable to take a lead, as Allmankind is going to go off like an absolute lunatic regardless.
slink
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,663
- Reaction score
- 1,913
Yeah it's definitely a good way of doing things, i try every year to do what you've done but i still can't get it down to 1 or 2 so always leave it until the entries are out. Prices not as lucrative as they are antepost obviously but i feel more comfortable in finding a selection and the preview evenings often throw something up that can make you change the way you've looked at the handicaps.
The last 3 winners of the Arkle haven't really gone on have they and the races themselves haven't been good to watch and that's a shame as usually it's a great race to watch and absolute superstars win it. I think it could be one of those years with Shishkin showing up to be top class.
Tony Towner
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 18, 2010
- Messages
- 38,866
- Reaction score
- 25,396
That Gordon Elliott defence belongs in Little Britain
Extremely flimsy explanation.
I'm thoroughly disgusted by the photo. I'm a huge racing fan, and around this time of year with Cheltenham and Aintree around the corner will always defend the sport, but there is no defending Elliott here. I hope they throw the book at him.
slink
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,663
- Reaction score
- 1,913
Don't think i can be any more disappointed than i am this morning with this. As someone who loves racing and have seen how yards treat their horses to see that one of the best in the game has done this is quite upsetting really. It just makes you think about the whole sport in general and what does actually happen when people aren't watching.
We all know there's opposition to horse racing from animal welfare groups etc but the story racing always comes back with is well the horses are treated like kings and this goes a long way but when stuff like this comes out that argument just isn't good enough. This couldn't have come at a worse time and racing really needs to look after itself now and make sure that Elliot never has anything to do with horse racing ever again, if he does it just sends the wrong message.
We all know there's opposition to horse racing from animal welfare groups etc but the story racing always comes back with is well the horses are treated like kings and this goes a long way but when stuff like this comes out that argument just isn't good enough. This couldn't have come at a worse time and racing really needs to look after itself now and make sure that Elliot never has anything to do with horse racing ever again, if he does it just sends the wrong message.
slink
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,663
- Reaction score
- 1,913
There lies the problem with racing and they wonder why the sport can't attract the general public as much as they would like. The picture is absolutely disgraceful but his explanation only makes it worse because it's absolute bullshit. How does anyone that loves horses look at GE the same way ever again.
