Relegation Thread 2023/24

[big mean bunny]

The issue then though if you are giving teams a formula. Need to ensure safety or a certain finish and you can begin to calculate that against potential points deductions, Newcastle's owners could hypothetically take a 20 point hit and still be safe if they considered a marquee signing this year would have helped the next. Maybe far fetched but still I imagine it's complicated to have such a strict punishment scale for matters surrounding differently run teams.

 

[jd1981]

They need a structure to it if punishment is just 2-4 points for being totally irresponsible then it’s worth the risk as you can bring in players who’ll make up that difference and sell on to gain further profit on them.
Everton probably avoided relegation last season due to FFP breaches ie selling Pickford to comply but no hang on to him stay up and risk the slap of FFP.

 

[Tony Towner]

The original -10 that Everton got was about right. Strikes the balance between guaranteed relegation and a genuine deterrent - needing to get a points haul somewhere in the mid 40s in a normal season.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

14. Crystal Palace 33 (-17) (West Ham H, Newcastle H, Fulham A, Man Utd H, Wolves A, Aston Villa H)
15. Brentford 32 (-11) (Luton A, Everton A, Fulham H, Bournemouth A, Newcastle H)
16. Everton 27 (-16) (Nottm Forest H, Liverpool H, Brentford H, Luton A, Sheff Utd H, Arsenal A)
17. Nottm Forest 26 (-16) (Everton A, Man City H, Sheff Utd A, Chelsea H, Burnley A)
-----------------------------
18. Luton 25 (-24) (Brentford H, Wolves A, Everton H, West Ham A, Fulham H)
19. Burnley 20 (-35) (Sheff Utd A, Man Utd A, Newcastle H, Tottenham A, Nottm Forest H)
20. Sheff Utd 16 (-54) (Burnley H, Man Utd A, Newcastle A, Nottm Forest H, Everton A, Tottenham H)

Sheff Utd 1/500
Burnley 1/25
Luton 8/15
Nottm Forest 9/4
Everton 4/1
Brentford 100/1
Crystal Palace 200/1

 

[Lycan]

Everton Vs Forest next week is huge

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I can make an individual case for Luton winning each of those games and also for them to lose each one.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

I can make an individual case for Luton winning each of those games and also for them to lose each one.

Indeed.

I've really enjoyed Luton this season, individually not good enough and they'll probably go down, but given a much better fist of it than 4 or 5 teams this season given what they have.

Blades, Burnley, Everton, Forest, Brentford have all arguably punched below Luton's relative level.

 

[lemonjelly]

Everton Vs Forest next week is huge

bottom 6 all playing each other this weekend means it could all get topsy turvy! Equally, it could essentially remain the same.

 

[Tony Towner]

#analysis

 

[BillyDee]

It will either be radically different, or exactly the same, or somewhere in between.

 

[leedswolf]

Thank you Garth...

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Disastrous afternoon for Luton as it stands. Brentford basically safe if it stays the same.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

16. Everton 30 (-14) (Liverpool H, Brentford H, Luton A, Sheff Utd H, Arsenal A)
17. Nottm Forest 26 (-18) (Man City H, Sheff Utd A, Chelsea H, Burnley A)
-----------------------------
18. Luton 25 (-28) (Wolves A, Everton H, West Ham A, Fulham H)
19. Burnley 23 (-32) (Man Utd A, Newcastle H, Tottenham A, Nottm Forest H)
20. Sheff Utd 16 (-57) (Man Utd A, Newcastle A, Nottm Forest H, Everton A, Tottenham H)

 

[Jinky]

16. Everton 30 (-14) (Liverpool H, Brentford H, Luton A, Sheff Utd H, Arsenal A)
17. Nottm Forest 26 (-18) (Man City H, Sheff Utd A, Chelsea H, Burnley A)
-----------------------------
18. Luton 25 (-28) (Wolves A, Everton H, West Ham A, Fulham H)
19. Burnley 23 (-32) (Man Utd A, Newcastle H, Tottenham A, Nottm Forest H)
20. Sheff Utd 16 (-57) (Man Utd A, Newcastle A, Nottm Forest H, Everton A, Tottenham H)

Don't see any way of the current bottom three getting out of it, really. Forest have a throwaway game coming up against City, but you'd think there's enough opportunity for points in their other fixtures to just about stay up. Don't see Burnley gaining many more, Sheff Utd have already gone & Luton may get a couple more wins but aren't consistent enough to do more than that, despite having the best fixture list on paper.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

17. Nottm Forest 26 (-20) (Sheff Utd A, Chelsea H, Burnley A)
-----------------------------
18. Luton 25 (-29) (Everton H, West Ham A, Fulham H)
19. Burnley 24 (-32) (Newcastle H, Tottenham A, Nottm Forest H)
20. Sheff Utd 16 (-61) (Nottm Forest H, Everton A, Tottenham H)

Burnley couldn't, could they? And Forest ABSOLUTELY have to win at Bramall Lane.

Sheff Utd now fairly likely to break Swindon's 100 goals conceded record (in 38 games as opposed to 42 in 1993/94).

 

[Sniffer]

I can't see Burnley getting anything out of Newcastle and Tottenham. A point for Forest out of Sheffield United or Chelsea should then see them safe.

Like you said (I think) weeks ago, you can make a case for Luton winning or losing all of their remaining games. It still applies!

 

[Alan]

I kind of want Burnley to fluke it. I can appreciate that they haven't immediately blown up Kompany's project, such as it is.

Although tbf if I had my druthers, Luton and Burnley would both pull it out somehow.

 

[Tyrannosaurus Dan]

Despite the Nuno factor, I’d still love to see Forest go.

I can’t see it though. You can’t be as poor as Luton and Burnley and stay up.

 

[Tony Towner]

I'd prefer Luton, Burnley, Forest to stay up in that order. None of the promoted teams are likely to get 30 points which is a pitiful effort.

 

[C.L.D]

I kind of want Burnley to fluke it. I can appreciate that they haven't immediately blown up Kompany's project, such as it is.

Although tbf if I had my druthers, Luton and Burnley would both pull it out somehow.

I like the fact that they haven't blown it all up (Luton too). Clubs yoyo'ing and recognising the likelihood as opposed to short term thinking when they get promoted is far more sustainable than the attempts we got before. And in my view/experience English coaches get sacked a bit too frequently compared to other sports.