REFERENDUM RESULTS AND DISCUSSION THREAD

[Premier Quality]

Something which definitely is related to Brexit:

Loyalist terrorists pull their support for Good Friday Agreement over Brexit border in Irish Sea

The organisation representing the views of loyalist paramilitary groups has told Boris Johnson that they are withdrawing their support for the Good Friday Agreement until the Irish Sea border is removed.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk

I’m sure there is some way to spin this as a positive, just can’t quite see it yet.

it’s definately a big deal that both sides need to work together on to stop becoming a huge issue.

no signs of that yet though.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I’m not sure how you resolve that one. Sea border and you piss off the loyalist paramilitaries. Hard land border and you piss off the republican paramilitaries.

Brexit is pretty much incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement as long as the Republic of Ireland is in the EU.

 

[Premier Quality]

It’s entirely possible to solve it if both sides wanted to - it just needs common sense on both sides

for example - is there likely to be a mass influx of British food being exported to Northern Ireland, then through Ireland and into Europe? The transport costs alone would push up prices to the point it’s not worth doing. The level of checks and paperwork are designed as an obstruction and internal point maker. I’d expect in a few years when it’s all settled down, it would be refined as those requirements wouldn’t be there any more anyway, just needs something to push it along.

Common sense is in short supply on both sides unfortunately, so I think it will come to a head rather than being solved amicably.

does anyone think Biden will try and intervene if the good Friday agreement looks like falling over?

 

[AndyWolves]

It’s entirely possible to solve it if both sides wanted to - it just needs common sense on both sides

for example - is there likely to be a mass influx of British food being exported to Northern Ireland, then through Ireland and into Europe? The transport costs alone would push up prices to the point it’s not worth doing. The level of checks and paperwork are designed as an obstruction and internal point maker. I’d expect in a few years when it’s all settled down, it would be refined as those requirements wouldn’t be there any more anyway, just needs something to push it along.

Common sense is in short supply on both sides unfortunately, so I think it will come to a head rather than being solved amicably.

does anyone think Biden will try and intervene if the good Friday agreement looks like falling over?

So once "common sense" has prevailed, how will the new situation be any better than the one we had in the EU?

 

[Premier Quality]

So once "common sense" has prevailed, how will the new situation be any better than the one we had in the EU?

In what way?

logically, we would have the same situation we have now, but with less difficulties for the people in Northern Ireland, who are currently struggling to get the same level of food etc that they used to.

it won’t go back to being the same as it used to be, it can just be less punitive than it is now.

they won’t and don’t have to fix everything to stop this being as big an issue as it is currently - it would be tweaking the governance and restrictions rather than wholesale changes. (Imo ofc)

 

[AndyWolves]

In what way?

logically, we would have the same situation we have now, but with less difficulties for the people in Northern Ireland, who are currently struggling to get the same level of food etc that they used to.

it won’t go back to being the same as it used to be, it can just be less punitive than it is now.

they won’t and don’t have to fix everything to stop this being as big an issue as it is currently - it would be tweaking the governance and restrictions rather than wholesale changes. (Imo ofc)

So once we've gone through the time and expense of fixing these border issues, how will that situation be an improvement over the one we had in the EU? I.e. what's the benefit?

 

[Premier Quality]

So once we've gone through the time and expense of fixing these border issues, how will that situation be an improvement over the one we had in the EU? I.e. what's the benefit?

That’s not the conversation here is it? This is a situation in Northern Ireland where one of the paramilitary groups has stated its withdrawing from the agreement.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

But it was entirely predictable as the whole concept of Brexit under the terms agreed by Johnson is incompatible with the GFA.

He outright lied about all this as well, multiple times.

 

[Premier Quality]

Always predictable, absolutely. This was never going to be a smooth rollover - it’s not in the EU’s interests to make it so.

and that’s fair enough from their perspective too, if it were smooth, it would make it more persuasive for other countries to do the same in the future.

the good Friday agreement is the one thing that might cause a change of heart though, neither side can allow violence to start again, either morally or politically.

 

[AndyWolves]

That’s not the conversation here is it? This is a situation in Northern Ireland where one of the paramilitary groups has stated its withdrawing from the agreement.

Its entirely relevant, otherwise whats the point to all of this?

It was also entirely predictable that Brexit would cause tensions here.

On the cost / benefit analysis of Brexit this one sits firmly in the cost column.

 

[Premier Quality]

Its entirely relevant, otherwise whats the point to all of this?

It was also entirely predictable that Brexit would cause tensions here.

On the cost / benefit analysis of Brexit this one sits firmly in the cost column.

Two different conversations- one is whether brexit is good or bad (the truth is that it’s neither absolute, there’s a lot of grey for people who aren’t wedded to a perspective).

the second is the Northern Ireland paramilitary position, which is linked but different because of the impact of violence starting again.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

I’ve had discussions with TSB before, whilst we tend to be on opposite sides of the argument, he makes his points very well, and doesn’t tend to need to resort to sarcasm.

Sorry. It was sarcasm. It's my go to place when everyone else has already made the points I would have.

May, Cameron, Brown and Blair would all "probably" have gone with the EU Vaccination route but there is no way of knowing that - the UK has opted out of some pretty significant EU schemes in the past and we may well have done the same with this if we were still fully fledged members. I just think you are being very disingenuous passing this off as a "Brexit success" when all it is really is a comparison between two different approaches.

 

[AndyWolves]

Two different conversations- one is whether brexit is good or bad (the truth is that it’s neither absolute, there’s a lot of grey for people who aren’t wedded to a perspective).

the second is the Northern Ireland paramilitary position, which is linked but different because of the impact of violence starting again.

I don't see how you can separate the two when one is the direct result of another. I suppose that depends on your perspective though.

Help me out though, what good things will Brexit do for us?

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It’s actually nothing to do with the actual transport of goods. It’s the political appearance of the solution.

Sea Border - effectively looks rather like a United Ireland. Loyalists lose what they have been battling for for over a century.

Hard Land Border - United Ireland effectively over as a concept for the future. IRA and their buddies lose what they have been battling for for over a century.

The greatest political minds of the last century and more have been struggling with the solution to the Irish Problem. Whilst not perfect the GFA was satisfactory enough to both sides that they could lay down their weapons.

Boris and his Brexit deal shits over that from a great height.

 

[Premier Quality]

Sorry. It was sarcasm. It's my go to place when everyone else has already made the points I would have.

May, Cameron, Brown and Blair would all "probably" have gone with the EU Vaccination route but there is no way of knowing that - the UK has opted out of some pretty significant EU schemes in the past and we may well have done the same with this if we were still fully fledged members. I just think you are being very disingenuous passing this off as a "Brexit success" when all it is really is a comparison between two different approaches.

That’s a shame, I’ve always considered your contributions as intellectual and interesting.

I had a higher opinion of you, I’ll revise you to a member of the echo chamber who can’t debate, but only throw stones going forwards.

im sure you won’t be devastated by that, but it was always nice to have someone who could rise above “black and white” views to debate with on here. Without that, there’s no point.

ill leave you all to your echo chamber, enjoy.

“everything’s shit, brexit is shit, Boris is shit, the toreez are shit, the English are shit, etc etc ad Infinitum.....”

best of luck all, will see you on the wolves threads

 

[Tredman]

It's solved by a united Ireland, Brexit will almost certainly result in Scottish independence and a united Ireland (unionists will be in a minority within 20 years I think). Ironic that it is the Conservative & Unionist Party which have put the final nail in the United Kingdom

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

A shame. I was hoping you were going to list the multiple benefits that I am obviously missing.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It's solved by a united Ireland, Brexit will almost certainly result in Scottish independence and a united Ireland (unionists will be in a minority within 20 years I think). Ironic that it is the Conservative & Unionist Party which have put the final nail in the United Kingdom

Quite possibly. However we need to go down the empathy route and picture ourselves in the shoes of a Loyalist Paramilitary as that starts to unfold. What’s the first thing they are going to want to do? Fight against the solution, so they will re-arm.

And then what’s the first thing that the IRA will do the moment it becomes apparent that the Loyalists have re-armed? Not hard to work that out.

 

[Tredman]

Quite possibly. However we need to go down the empathy route and picture ourselves in the shoes of a Loyalist Paramilitary as that starts to unfold. What’s the first thing they are going to want to do? Fight against the solution, so they will re-arm.

And then what’s the first thing that the IRA will do the moment it becomes apparent that the Loyalists have re-armed? Not hard to work that out.

Too late now I think.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

And that is one of the best reasons why the referendum should never have been held in the first place. The Irish powder keg will inevitably be re ignited.