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https://www.theguardian.com/busines...brexit-vote-eu-referendum-imf-oecd-uk-economy
Osborne’s belief that voters would be swayed by fears of recession meant Lagarde and Gurría popped up regularly during the campaign. In the event, the plan did not work. Those who voted to leave the EU appeared sceptical about the forecasts produced by the IMF and the OECD – and those from the Treasury and the Bank of England, for that matter.
That scepticism has looked increasingly justified in the months since the referendum. The first prediction to go awry was that the economy would plunge into instant recession. It didn’t.
When the economy showed signs of resilience, there was a second prediction: the unexpected strength was driven by consumer spending and a different picture would be painted when figures for investment came in. Figures for investment were published last week. It was up in the third quarter.
There has been another retreat to a new fallback position. Yes, the IMF and the OECD admit, we were taken by surprise by the strength of the economy in the months after the Brexit vote and we have been forced to revise up our growth forecasts for 2016. But, take it from us, the outlook for the UK is still grim. The downturn is coming – it is simply a matter of time.
Osborne’s belief that voters would be swayed by fears of recession meant Lagarde and Gurría popped up regularly during the campaign. In the event, the plan did not work. Those who voted to leave the EU appeared sceptical about the forecasts produced by the IMF and the OECD – and those from the Treasury and the Bank of England, for that matter.
That scepticism has looked increasingly justified in the months since the referendum. The first prediction to go awry was that the economy would plunge into instant recession. It didn’t.
When the economy showed signs of resilience, there was a second prediction: the unexpected strength was driven by consumer spending and a different picture would be painted when figures for investment came in. Figures for investment were published last week. It was up in the third quarter.
There has been another retreat to a new fallback position. Yes, the IMF and the OECD admit, we were taken by surprise by the strength of the economy in the months after the Brexit vote and we have been forced to revise up our growth forecasts for 2016. But, take it from us, the outlook for the UK is still grim. The downturn is coming – it is simply a matter of time.
