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Ukraine

BillyDee said:
RAF jets scramble pretty much every month to intercept Russian planes, have done for decades.
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Yep and that’s all they do is they intercept nothing more, you don’t end human life to prove you mean business.
 
jd1981 said:
Shouldn’t be underestimated just how quickly shooting down a Russian plane can escalate very quickly into an international crisis.
Once you’re down that path it’s very hard to put the brakes on.
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Absolutely, it's a terrifying thought. However it feels like Putin is going further every few weeks to test NATOs resolve. How far do you allow him to go?
 
jd1981 said:
Where does it stop especially when you have a like for like retaliation?
Rational thinking needs to be applied whilst incurring air space is a violation it’s not killing anyone.
If you suggest NATO should be being proactive and shooting down Russian planes then you lose all ability to negotiate on your terms, for starters you destroy any little trust that may have existed.
NATO plane kills Russian pilots, you’re entering a completely different ball game to Russia invading Ukraine etc.
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Putin doesn’t want negotiations, he wants either the old tsarist or soviet empire back, and he doesn’t care on the costs, what is it 1.5 million soldiers lost, 100 or so multi million pound jets, around a 1000 multi million pound tanks, how many ships, he wants Ukraine gone from history, lot of the northern coast of Estonia is Russian speaking, then from Sillemae to Narva is majority Russian and Narva is only Russian speaking, they’d welcome being back home under mother Russia.
He’ll carry on taking the piss, nato will carry on with the stern words, and next thing you know he’s protecting Russian infrastructure of the railway to Kaliningrad in the Sulwaki gap in Lithuania and nato will escalate to sterner words and strongly worded letters asking him nicely to stop or there’ll be repercussions, his bluff has to be called at some point, who knows when and what will do it.
 
BillyDee said:
RAF jets scramble pretty much every month to intercept Russian planes, have done for decades.
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When I lived up in Lincoln we supplied cooks to the QRA (quick reaction alert) at Coningsby used to take them right to the building next to the hangers, they got scrambled a couple of times when I was there, it was epic, from the alarm to in the sky and gone in a couple of minutes.
Asked all the idiot questions to the staff like I was a 7yo, how fast, how high etc, was told Coningsby to London was around 6 minutes! They scramble and everything gets moved out the way and the jets have a 2 mile sterile space around them horizontally and vertically, and get the nod to go supersonic asap after takeoff
 
Keef said:
Putin doesn’t want negotiations, he wants either the old tsarist or soviet empire back, and he doesn’t care on the costs, what is it 1.5 million soldiers lost, 100 or so multi million pound jets, around a 1000 multi million pound tanks, how many ships, he wants Ukraine gone from history, lot of the northern coast of Estonia is Russian speaking, then from Sillemae to Narva is majority Russian and Narva is only Russian speaking, they’d welcome being back home under mother Russia.
He’ll carry on taking the piss, nato will carry on with the stern words, and next thing you know he’s protecting Russian infrastructure of the railway to Kaliningrad in the Sulwaki gap in Lithuania and nato will escalate to sterner words and strongly worded letters asking him nicely to stop or there’ll be repercussions, his bluff has to be called at some point, who knows when and what will do it.
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There’s absolutely no way on this planet Russia can financially afford or logistically support a war in Ukraine and the Baltic States against NATO simultaneously.
If he defeats Ukraine then yes you can start to be nervous but that war looks like a complete stalemate currently.
He knows full well any invasion of the Baltic states invokes article 5 for NATO.
You don’t stay in power for 20+ years for being stupid.
If an invasion of the Baltic states were close you’d see a major build up of troop movements on those borders.
He’s bolstered his forces there but nothing remotely big enough to suggest invasion.
Dealing with countries with nuclear weapons is one of very few times you should be reactive not proactive ie striking first policy.
Evidence suggests this is a continuation of a game Russia plays and has done for years.
NATO plays it pretty well by showing it’s there but no being bated into violent aggression.
Simply saying you don’t push humanity closer to experiencing a threads type situation due to something that’s barely cost any lives so far.
Yep it’s annoying from our view point but if you look at it from Russia view point they’d say it’s equally intimidating being surrounded by NATO forces especially in Eastern Europe where historically it’s been a huge weakness for them for centuries due to the geography in that region.
 
2 Hungarian Saab Gripens scrambled from Saulinai airbase in Lithuania to intercept Russian Su-30, Su-35 and three Mig-31 approaching from over the Baltic Sea.

Poland has changed its rules of engagement giving air commanders the authority to shoot down anything Russian in its airspace, without having to get defence minister involved, airliners still need his ok though, although they can be forced to land without his permission.
 
Large numbers of Russian “border guards” spotted on the Estonian border area of what is known as the Saatse boot, thats basically a bit of Russia that juts into Estonia, you can drive/cycle through it but no stopping or the Russians arrest you for illegal entry, Estonia sending troops to monitor what’s going on IMG_3355.png
 
Those tiny little border disputes are always ludicrous. Just give them back their 2 miles of land FFS.
 
Yea, I’ve never understood why it wasn’t sorted out decades ago, it’s just forest with a couple of border watch towers
 
AndyWolves said:
He may say that, but i don't think Russia is in any position to escalate their current conflict.
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Yeah I think it would be difficult for Russia to fight on more fronts, theyre struggling to make inroads into Ukraine. Hopefully just posturing. On the TV programme I mentioned last night, NATO are equiping a massive base on the Black Sea in Romania which could support up to 10,000 troops. The Wests biggest issue is Trump, such a 'flakey' leader of Europes biggest most powerful ally is concerning to say the least.
 
lemonjelly said:
Putin has apparently stated he is ready for war with europe in a potentially worrying development.
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Every time he says things like that there tends to be very little said back to him from Nato , in any strong statement . That annoys me , but as someone else said - the lack of a proper US Leader is a massive problem .
 
1986 said:
Every time he says things like that there tends to be very little said back to him from Nato , in any strong statement . That annoys me , but as someone else said - the lack of a proper US Leader is a massive problem .
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Rutte has been fairly strong in his response, well as strong as you can be in diplomatic circles, its only really Putin and Trump that engage in sabre rattling.
NATO, especially EU and UK need to carry on upping their spending on defence to show them we're not the pushover they think. Its a sad state of affairs that we need to but thats the way it is.
 
Uk definitely needs to sort its shit out, we don’t make our ammunition, British army uniforms Chinese made, 14 artillery guns in the whole army! Complete fleet of trucks out of service because of safety issues with the chassis, new armoured personnel carriers making soldiers ill ( causing vomiting, numbness through vibration, temporary hearing loss) on the first large exercise to prove how good the new vehicle is, a couple of troops on the original testing were invalided out due to the deafness it caused.
It’s a fucking disgrace.
Navy and air force just as bad
 
There’s the airlines GPS disruption thats been ongoing for a year or so, affecting bits of Poland, Sweden, Finland and all of Estonia, Latvian and Lithuania, signals been proven to come out of Kaliningrad
 
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